The Caribbean nation also has 304,717 fewer women of child-bearing age, so the number of births is expected to continue to decline

By Roberto Morejón

Cuba's demographic structure has undergone remarkable changes, with a trend toward a reduction in the effective population, hence the alarm from the nation to the community and the family.

The experts' report on the decline of the 10 million Cuban residents and the trend towards a decrease requires a multidimensional analysis.

It is not by chance that the government has created a central commission to review the situation, which on December 31, 2023 pointed to an effective population of just over 10 million people, but since then the trend has continued.

In fact, since that date, the contraction in the number of births and the movement of people abroad have continued.

In the latter aspect, the intensification in the last three years of the mobility of Cubans abroad, with longer stays in other latitudes, stands out.

As a result, the effective population of the largest of the Antilles is 10.1 percent less than on December 31, 2020 and similar to that recorded in 1985.

In addition, there has been a natural decrease in recent times, with more deaths than births.

The Caribbean nation also has 304,717 fewer women of child-bearing age, so the number of births is projected to continue to decline, falling below 80,000 in 2024, the lowest level since 1959.

The aging of the Cuban population is thus confirmed, with almost a fifth of the population aged 60 and over in 2023.

All of this has an impact on the plans and efforts of a country that today is experiencing significant material difficulties and in the activity of services, mainly due to the US blockade and the decision of that country to place Havana on a list of countries that, according to the United States, are sponsors of terrorism.

With almost no access to credit, the withdrawal of some banks, the impact on foreign investment, a visible recovery in tourism but still below plans, and internal inaccuracies, called here distortions, the Island attends with urgency and depth the delicate demographic panorama.

For the Cuban society, its economy is presented with a high cost due to the scope that the programs with weight in security and social assistance must have and the margin of maneuver for the renovation of the labor resources will be smaller.