"The Arab community in Michigan voted against the Democrats, disappointed by the unconditional support for Israel," said Professor Alfredo Jalife on teleSUR.
Caracas, November 9 (RHC)-- Geostrategic analyst Alfredo Jalife, interviewed by teleSUR, analyzed the factors behind this victory of the American magnate and anticipated the effects it could have on Washington's foreign policy, particularly towards Latin America.
He pointed out that the Democratic Party failed to retain the support of the American working class, which resulted in a tilt of this group towards the Republican vote, and highlighted how the “Gaza effect” and inflation were decisive elements that drove the vote in favor of Trump in key states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan.
For Jalife, the Democratic Party has progressively distanced itself from its working-class roots, adopting positions that, in his opinion, align more with the interests of the elites and a plutocratic group.
This caused "an exodus of traditional voters from the party," who, in this election, chose to support Trump. According to the Mexican expert, this phenomenon became evident in industrial states in the north of the country, where discontent over the rise in the price of food and gasoline was palpable.
Jalife explained that despite the Biden administration's efforts to control "core inflation" -- a statistical measure that excludes food and energy -- the economic reality for many citizens has been increasingly difficult.
A clear example of this frustration is seen in the "Teamsters" union (truck drivers' union), who have traditionally supported the Democratic Party but, on this occasion, decided to change their vote and it is even suspected that many of their members actively promoted the vote in favor of Trump.
The "Michigan surprise" and the "Gaza effect"
Another prominent factor in this election was the so-called "Gaza effect" in Michigan, a state with a significant Arab-American population.
Jalife noted that the Arab community in Michigan, made up of approximately 300 thousand people, played a crucial role in the electoral result due to their dissatisfaction with Biden's policies regarding the conflict in Gaza.
According to the analyst, this demographic segment, traditionally close to the Democratic Party, felt betrayed by the US government's stance in support of Israel and against Palestinian interests, which would have tipped the balance in Michigan in favor of Trump, marking a trend of disaffection towards the Democrats among ethnic groups that were previously their natural allies.
Perspectives for Latin America: energy policy and geopolitical alliances
One of the most relevant issues that Jalife addresses in relation to Latin America is the impact of Trump's victory on energy policy in the region.
Jalife identifies Lula da Silva, president of Brazil, as one of the big losers of Trump's election. According to the analyst, Lula had a favorable relationship with the administration of Joe Biden, focused on a clean energy agenda and environmental policies that coincided with the priorities of the Democratic Party.
With the return of Trump, who is an open defender of the oil industry, this relationship becomes uncertain. Jalife says: “Lula has bet everything on a model of energy transition and environmental agreements, and Trump is not an ally for that type of policies.”
“With Trump, a president openly in favor of the oil industry returns to the White House,” Jalife said, suggesting that this change could benefit oil-producing countries like Venezuela, since Trump’s pro-oil stance would ease the pressure on nations that depend on this industry. Although this could only happen if the president-elect abandons the sanctions policy against the Caribbean nation taken in the past.
However, this return of Trump's oil policy could also generate tensions with other countries in the region that have adopted environmental policies focused on clean energy. In this regard, he pointed out that Mexico could face difficulties due to the environmental agenda of its government, given that Claudia Sheimbaum, the president of Mexico, has defended a position in favor of green energy and against nuclear energy, although this policy could change as anticipated by Jalife.
The new geopolitical board: rapprochement with Russia and China
Another dimension of Jalife's analysis focused on the international relations of the United States under the presidency of Trump. The analyst foresees a possible rapprochement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a turn that could also reconfigure geopolitical alliances in Latin America.
According to Jalife, this strategy could translate into less pressure from Washington towards countries in the region that maintain ties with Russia or China. Jalife also highlighted that Trump has questioned the military spending policy in Ukraine, suggesting that it could reduce US support for the conflict in that country, which would impact global power dynamics.
He also mentioned the possible role of other key players, such as Elon Musk, who according to the analyst, is one of the big winners of this election. For Jalife, Musk could influence the decisions of the Trump administration, especially in areas such as rare metal mining, technology and communications, which in turn could have implications for Latin American companies that depend on US technology and digital platforms.
