By Pedro M. Otero Cabañas
Hurricane season begins on June 1st in the North Atlantic, which according to experts could be very aggressive for the region.
This is a period of 6 months in which the Civil Defense systems of the Caribbean, Central America, northern South America, the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States must be activated and on early warning.
This time the forecasters add to their calculations the presence of a little-known phenomenon, the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation, MJO, for its acronym in English.
This is nothing more than a wave or area of low pressure that travels around the world in a period of 30 to 60 days. The new actor would contribute to accelerating storm formation processes and generating a safe climate scenario in the region.
A segment of the MJO will pass through the Atlantic and Africa by mid-June onwards, so atmospheric conditions would begin to be more favorable for cyclonic development, mostly over the Caribbean, according to the forecast, signed by almost all the meteorological offices of the area and the prestigious US National Hurricane Center.
In this way, hurricane activity is expected to be 85% higher than normal in the Atlantic basin.
As is already known, 17 to 25 named storms are estimated for this season, with winds of 119 km/h or more. Of these, between 8 and 13 could become hurricanes, with winds of 154 km/h or more. And of the latter, between 4 and 5 could become major hurricanes, with winds of 178 km/h and more. Meteorologists are 70% confident in these ranges.
In Cuba the probabilities of being affected by hurricanes in the months of June and July are very low. These begin to increase in August, and reach their peak during September and October.
Tropical cyclones are associated with intense rains, strong winds and coastal flooding due to sea penetration. The amount of rain that falls is determined by the speed of the cyclone and the size of the area it covers.
The country has a very well structured Civil Defense, with a national command center, which in turn has replicas in the 16 Cuban provinces.
These organize, instruct, prepare and train citizens so that they can adequately face any emergency situation generated by nature or man.
So the passage through the island of storms and cyclones does not take the population by surprise. However, these unpleasant visitors cause casualties and material damage, some of which is considerable. Good preparation and organization will keep the damage to a minimum.
