Havana, April 10 (RHC)-- Around 60 days after the first declaration of contagion in Cuba (March 11), the peak of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the nation could be occurring, placing the top of the curve in mid-May.

The conclusion is part of a study conducted by the University of Havana's Mathematics and Computer Science Faculty, whose results were discussed on the television program Mesa Redonda by its dean, Dr. Raúl Guinovart.

The scientific modeling of the epidemic's behavior foresees a constant increase in positive cases during April; however, the professor stressed that, although the curve would occur approximately in the same period, it could be higher (over four thousand infected,), or lower (around one thousand), depending on the rigor with which the measures of social isolation implemented by the Cuban government are complied with.

Guinovart noted that only the separation of the sick from the healthy would allow the spread to be contained and the height of the curve be bent favorably, an argument that validates the extreme importance of active screening (to get the sick out of the healthy), honest contact declaration (to detect possible asymptomatic infections), and social discipline (to contain transmission).

Regardless of the intensity, the graphic models of the study foresee a term of about four months (120 days after the first case) for the cycle of the contagion curve to return to minimum values.